As we transition from summer to fall, the spotlight is on the anticipated shift in the Fed's monetary policy. While some predict a 50-basis point rate cut, other data points towards a more conservative 25-basis point cut.
After weeks of Olympic-themed press reports about the Fed “sticking the (soft) landing,” one very bad labor report flipped the script. Did Powell wait too long to begin cutting rates? Is a recession inevitable? What is the Sahm rule?
With a Fed still undecided on rate cuts and waiting on data, as well as continued heightened geopolitical risk and an election season that is already dramatic, what is in store for the balance of 2024?
May saw a return to more confidence in the economy and the markets. The Fed met early in the month, and Chairman Powell managed to curb market pessimism by stating that it was unlikely that the Fed’s next move would be a rate hike.
The NBA Playoffs are hugely exciting for basketball fans and athletes but are also a significant driver of economic growth for the host cities. Learn more about the economics of the NBA Playoffs!
April had it all, and most of it was not so great. Inflation is proving sticky again, which forced the market and the Fed to reassess the timing of interest rate cuts.
Fed likely to hold rates due to strong jobs data, but cuts may come later in 2024. Markets rallied on anticipation of cuts. Equity & bond performance included. Investors advised to review portfolios and adjust for higher interest rates.
We hear a lot about inflation rates, but do you know how inflation is calculated? Interestingly enough, that’s a pretty simple formula that economists use! Find out how here.
Stocks are strong but inflation persists. The Fed is considering rate cuts but is cautious about inflation risks. The housing market remains expensive. Consumers are spending less. A strong equity market is welcome, but how will it impact the rest of the economy?
Fed Chairman Powell came under ferocious criticism for how long he waited to raise rates. It looks now like the strength of the economic recovery allowed for a massive tightening without tipping over into recession. Is Powell a monetary policy magician? Or did he just get lucky?
The drama around the timing of the Federal Reserve’s first cuts to the key short-term interest rate continued in last few weeks of the old year and into the first week of the new year. Are rates still likely to come down in 2024?
The prevailing sentiment at the end of November, is that rates could begin to come down as early as March. How does cutting rates earlier in 2024 square with the scenario of keeping rates higher to ensure inflation doesn’t bounce back up?
The Federal Reserve's November meeting went as the market expected: no change in rates. What wasn't expected was the October and early November rollercoaster of bond yields. And by rollercoaster, think Kingda Ka.
The outcome of the Fed's meeting in September was to hold rates at the current level. It has been described as a "hawkish pause," and the Fed was clear in post-meeting remarks and statements that one more increase is still possible in 2023.
Instead of a recession, the economy is healthy and appears poised for slow, but sustainable, growth. This is pretty close to the soft landing that Jerome Powell consistently insisted was achievable. Can consumer spending continue to prop up the economy, or will inflation continually outpacing income take a toll?