August dropped a curveball. While summer brought record-breaking heat, the job market has been slipping into an icy stall. With inflation still lingering, Fed Chair Jerome Powell had already hinted that a rate cut was on the table for September. The real question is how deep: a cautious 25 basis points or a more aggressive 50?
Summer is usually known as the “silly season,” when headlines get lighter and the media fills space with fluff. Not this year. July saw tariff drama, shakeups among government officials, the President picking fights with the Fed, and fresh data that rattled expectations. Where does this leave the chances for a September rate cut?
June packed in more global uncertainty. However, both the stock and bond markets brushed off the noise and still delivered positive returns. Are investors just numb after months of nonstop headlines, or is everyone quietly waiting for September before they start caring again?
May reminded us that markets aren’t just driven by numbers. They’re driven by stories, headlines, and shifting expectations. On paper, the economy looks solid. But there’s a growing sense that cracks could be forming underneath. So what’s the Fed going to do?
April's market turbulence had investors bracing for a recession, but strong job growth, easing inflation, and steady Fed policy suggest a more resilient economy. Could tariff uncertainty and shifting consumer confidence still push us off course?
March kicked off on a hopeful note, with inflation coming in a bit cooler than expected. But that relief didn’t last long. “Liberation Day” as dubbed by the administration, was supposed to be a win. Instead, it became the day tariffs hit hard.
The new administration’s push to "reindustrialize America" is moving from campaign rhetoric to policy reality. The big question getting a lot of buzz right now is are we headed for a "Trumpcession," or will these signals prove to be short-term noise?
January felt like it lasted forever, with the country facing wild weather swings and devastating wildfires. Despite all the noise from the new administration, the markets might not be taking the bluster too seriously. Could January’s market rally be a good omen for the rest of the year?
2025 kicks off with some serious questions about the future of our economy. The U.S. president starts a second term with a majority in Congress, but with inflation still lingering and bond markets spooked, what does the future look like for investors?
For now, the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates remains in focus. Will the strong job numbers and GDP growth make the Federal Reserve pause on lowering rates?
The recent election season, filled with twists and turns, concluded with the re-election of President Donald Trump. What impact will the continued Trump administration have on the economy and markets?
The 50-basis point interest rate cut in September marked a shift in monetary policy. While this fueled a significant downward move, new data may temper expectations for further cuts. Will the upcoming election and geopolitical tensions keep markets volatile?
As we transition from summer to fall, the spotlight is on the anticipated shift in the Fed's monetary policy. While some predict a 50-basis point rate cut, other data points towards a more conservative 25-basis point cut.
After weeks of Olympic-themed press reports about the Fed “sticking the (soft) landing,” one very bad labor report flipped the script. Did Powell wait too long to begin cutting rates? Is a recession inevitable? What is the Sahm rule?
With a Fed still undecided on rate cuts and waiting on data, as well as continued heightened geopolitical risk and an election season that is already dramatic, what is in store for the balance of 2024?